Crucial Financial Data You
Are not Receiving
A)
The End of Quantitative Easing
The mass build-up
of worldwide debt came to a head for whatever reason in 2008. We were on
the verge of a great depression. The crisis called for swift emergency
action. It initiated in the United States in a grand experiment known as
Quantitative Easing, and was mimicked across the globe. Quantitative Easing
is the process of printing money and using that money to buy assets from
banks with intentions of cleaning up the banks' balance sheets and to lower
interest rates. Interest rates declined to the lowest levels in history
with many rates actually turning negative. This meant that lenders were
paying borrowers to lend from them. (Unbelievable).
The U.S. formally
ended this process in 2014. And, from the date the program ended in 2014
until the election in November, 2016, the U.S. stock market stalled. The
gains that were made while Quantitative Easing was in force did not
evaporate, but they did not expand. That is until the election day and
throughout 2017 when the market was pricing in stimulus from tax reform.
B)
Share Buybacks and Dividends
Lowering corporate
taxes is considered economic stimulus. Normally, you receive an economic
stimulus when things are slowing down. The market rallied like a "dot
com" year from the election day throughout 2017 out of belief that
with Republicans in control of both Congress and the White House, a massive
tax break was to be realized. What have corporations done with the windfall
of cash resulting from lower tax rates? By and large, it has all been spent
on dividends and stock buybacks. In lieu of investing in plants, equipment
or other capital expenditures, companies are buying an inordinate amount of
their own shares of stock. This means that there are far fewer shareholders
than previously, and as a result, even if earnings remain flat, with fewer
shareholders with whom to divide earnings, shares escalate. JP Morgan
estimates that share buybacks in 2018 will exceed those of 2017 by 52%, and
2017 was previously a record breaking year. Notwithstanding the boost
stocks get through buybacks and their magnitude, the U.S. stock market has
been vacillating all year between gains and losses. It is unrealistic to
expect records to continually be beaten, especially when their impetus was
spurred by a one-time tax policy.
C)
Interest Rates are Rising on Account of Two Forces
The Federal
Reserve has been actively increasing interest rates to achieve more
"normal" levels. They are also clearly telegraphing that they
will continue to do so. A great number of the government bonds which the
Fed purchased through its money printing and bond buying Quantitative
Easing program have matured. The cash that becomes available when such a
federal bond matures has been reinvested every month by the Fed into new
bond purchases. However, what is not well recognized is the fact that
beginning last fall, the Fed has been curtailing its policy of rolling cash
from bonds that mature into new bond purchases. This is significantly
reducing liquidity into the economy and also resulting in rising interest
rates. Last quarter, this resulted in $30 billion per month being pulled
out of the system. This quarter it has increased to $40 billion per month,
and next quarter it increases another $10 billion to $50 billion per month.
D)
Interest Rate Differentials are Suppressing
The difference in
interest rates paid on long term Treasuries versus short term Treasuries is
narrowing, and it is narrowing dramatically. In normal times, one should
receive significantly more interest for tying his money up for a longer
period of time. When this narrows and eventually inverts, it is a tell-tale
sign of a likely impending recession. So, a narrowing is a very powerful
leading indicator. Right now, a 30 year Treasury yields 2.97%. A 10 year
Treasury yields 2.86%. Think about that. Spreads have narrowed to the point
of getting a mere .11% interest for locking in your money for 20 additional
years. A 2 year Treasury is currently yielding 2.61%. This means that the
spread between the 2 year and the 10 year is only .25%.
E)
Conclusion:
As we usher in the
longest bull market in history, it is easy and natural to feel euphoric and
complacent. Quantitative Easing, historically low interest rates, share
buybacks and tax reform are individually as well as collectively
responsible. But we are now on the other side. You should make sure that
your investments are aligned accordingly.
Best,
Greg Gann
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